アジア開発途上国における長期的旅客行動の変遷に関する研究
| アジア開発途上国における長期的旅客行動の変遷に関する研究 |
| A Study on Long-term Travel Behavior Changes in Developing Asian Countries |
| 研究員 |
ﾌﾞｩ ﾄｩｱﾝ ｱﾝ （Dr. Vu Anh Tuan） |
| 背景 |
In developing Asian countries (DACs), there are two special transport problems that strongly call for innovative policy solutions in the long run.
The first problem is the strong shift to motorcycle mode in urban transport, which is mainly caused by the rapid growth in motorcycle ownership and the deteriorated services of public transport system. The dominance of motorcycles has multiple implications for future developments of urban transport. It popularizes privately motorized modes even at low incomes, reducing public transport ridership and more importantly bringing an irreversible behavioral change for modal preference to private vehicles.
The second one is the dominance of bus mode in intercity transport. In most DACs, since bus services are now cheaper than other modes (private car, rail and air), its share is dominant in all ranges of trip distance, even for trips longer than 1,000km. This phenomenon carries important implications for future developments of intercity transport. In the future, as incomes increase and infrastructure/services of some modes (rail and air) improve further, people's travel behaviors (i.e., car ownership, travel volume and mode choice) may change drastically. Such uncertainties in travel behavior may create the risk of making the wrong investments in transport infrastructures/services in the long term.
Therefore, understanding deeply people's travel behavior changes in the long run is essential for aiding the policy makers in formulating innovative policies to solve the problems. Unfortunately, such researches have been lacking in DACs.
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| 目的 |
The objectives of this research are as follows:
・To explore and understand long-term trends in private vehicle ownership (including motorcycle and private car) and travel behaviors with focus on the influences of socioeconomic and infrastructure/service changes;
・To recommend innovative policy solutions for sustainable transport systems in DACs.
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| 研究内容 |
To pursue the objectives, this research follows a framework as follow:
Case studies: Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia (DACs) for comparison; and Taiwan, South Korea and Japan (developed) for lesson learning.
Scope: The study covers both urban and intercity transport.
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| 概要 |
アジアの開発途上国では都市内交通では乗用車やバイク、都市間交通ではバスのシェアが圧倒的に多くなっており、交通混雑、交通事故、環境問題などが深刻な社会問題となっている。こうしたことから、本研究では都市内、都市間交通を対象として、インフラ整備や公共交通サービス水準の変化に伴う利用者の長期的な行動分析について先進国と発展途上国の比較分析を行う。 |
| 発表 |
◆ 第28回研究報告会（2010.11）
「アジア各国における自動車とバイク保有率の関連性分析」
◆ 第30回研究報告会（2011.11）
「アジアの大都市におけるオートバイ交通の長期的需要管理に関する研究」
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