Research theme
Study on transport planning and transport behavior
「Empirical Analysis of the effect of fluctuation of gasoline price on transportation behaviour」
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| Senior Research fellow |
Mr. Koichi FUJISAKI |
Object+
Background |
It has been reported not only in Japan buy also in U.S. that the recent high gasoline price motivated people to change their travel behavior from using car to taking public transport, allegedly with no evidence. Therefore, this study analyses empirically the effect of fluctuation of gasoline price on transport behavior in Japan, with the purpose of contributing to considering the possible transport fuel policy towards a low carbon transport system as well as the feasible demand projection. The method of the study includes macro econometrics in which the gasoline price elasticity and the GDP per capita elasticity of the mileage (person-kilometer) travelled per capita by public transport as well as that by personal automobile in fixed value as well as in flexible value are estimated based on the historical statistics in fiscal years as well as in quarters since April 1987 until March 2008, making use of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. It can lead not only to some policy implications with regard to the gasoline price or tax measures which could prevent the increase of car use and to but also a trial estimation of the rate of increase of CO2 emissions from that land transport sector in case of the possible abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate which has been discussed in the Japan's policy agenda. |
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